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Wall Street faced volatility as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq marked their third consecutive day of losses, while the Dow ended a 10-day losing streak. FedEx surged 8.5% after a strategic spin-off, while Nike shares fell 6% amid a delayed turnaround plan. Novo Nordisk's obesity treatment trial results disappointed, causing its stock to drop, while Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Occidental Petroleum.
New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams stated that while interest rates are expected to decrease over time, he cannot confirm the Fed's next move. He emphasized that monetary policy remains restrictive due to ongoing inflation pressures above the 2% target, suggesting a potential shift toward a more neutral stance if data aligns with his outlook. Markets are currently speculating on whether the Fed will lower rates at its upcoming policy meeting amid easing inflation.
S&P 500 futures remained stable after the index reached a record high. The offshore yuan weakened past 7.3 against the dollar, with predictions it could fall to 8 by 2025. South Korea's inflation rose to 1.5% in November, prompting an unexpected rate cut by the Bank of Korea. Investors are favoring U.S. equities, with Morgan Stanley highlighting a balanced earnings recovery across sectors. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized ongoing efforts to combat inflation, while JPMorgan's Jason Hunter noted bullish signals for stocks from the bond market. In after-hours trading, Tesla and Zscaler saw declines, while Credo Technology Group surged after exceeding earnings expectations.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is leaning toward supporting a rate cut in December, citing expectations for inflation to trend down to 2%. However, he expressed concerns over recent inflation data, which showed an uptick, indicating that the central bank's goal remains challenging. Waller emphasized the importance of upcoming employment and inflation reports in shaping his final decision.
Stock futures are little changed as investors prepare for December, following a strong November where the Dow and S&P 500 achieved their best monthly performances of 2024. The Dow gained 7.5% and the S&P 500 rose 5.7%, driven by a postelection rally after Donald Trump's victory. Economic data on manufacturing and construction spending, along with key labor reports, are anticipated this week, alongside speeches from Federal Reserve officials.
Treasury yields rose on Thursday, with the 10-year yield at 4.469% and the 2-year yield at 4.301%, as investors awaited key economic data and Federal Reserve speeches. The producer price index is anticipated to show a 0.2% increase, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials are set to discuss the economic outlook amid speculation on interest rates following President-elect Donald Trump's return.
The recent FOMC minutes reveal a cautious Federal Reserve, supporting the US dollar as expectations for aggressive rate cuts are tempered. With the upcoming CPI data and speeches from Fed officials, market sentiment remains focused on potential shifts in monetary policy amid global uncertainties and a looming US election. The EUR/USD pair faces downward pressure as the ECB prepares for rate cuts, while the dollar's strength is bolstered by geopolitical factors and resilient economic data.
IG
China plans to significantly increase central government debt issuance to stimulate its economy, while investors await more details on stimulus measures. Despite mixed inflation data, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, supporting equities into next year. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and fundamental supply-demand dynamics are likely to bolster oil and gold prices, making them valuable portfolio hedges.
Gold prices are on a record chase following a significant 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, with hopes for further reductions later this year. The trading range is anticipated between $2,500 and $2,700, influenced by recent cuts from the ECB and BoE. Investors should remain cautious of potential setbacks as key economic indicators and Fed comments are expected to impact market trends.
IG
Nestlé's recovery is bolstering the Swiss stock market as global markets react to the Fed's recent half-point rate cut, which has raised expectations for another cut in November. Analysts emphasize the Fed's intent to safeguard the labor market, with key inflation data and remarks from several Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, set to shape future monetary policy.
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